Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
