Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
